Abstract
- One of the most common wagers in sports is the Over/Under wager where the bettor can wager if the total points scored by both teams is greater than (Over) or less than (Under) the total predicted. Gamblers have demonstrated a bias to bet more heavily the Over since they prefer to cheer for points being scored and receive consumption value from this wager. Several studies found betting the under is profitable in: NFL football, Arena football, NBA basketball, European soccer, and college football. These studies find that the total sample is efficient but there are sub-samples of games that are mispriced. We extend these studies by testing for market inefficiencies and profitable gambling strategies in SEC college football games. Specifically, we find that the Over-Under wager for the SEC is not efficient. We also examine results by individual team. For seven of the twelve teams betting the under would have been profitable. The most profitable bets are for Mississippi State and Vanderbilt which would have won 57.95% and 58.82%, respectively. A gambler would earn a 12.29% return on investment over the football season which translates into an annual return of more than 49%