The potential impacts of climate change on coastal North Carolina: A report by the faculty of the University of North Carolina Wilmington for Erskine Bowles, President, The University of North Carolina.
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At the request of University of North Carolina President Erskine Boles, this study investigates the potential impacts of climate change in coastal North Carolina from interstate I-95 eastward to the coast and the ocean off the North Carolina coast to the 200 mile limit of the United States’ Exclusive Economic Zone. Potential climate impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation are assessed for the next one hundred years to 2100. No original data collection or analysis was conducted; findings reflect review and synthesis of existing information as of November 2008. Physical Impacts of Climate Change: • There is a high degree of scientific certainty that global average temperature is rising and will continue to rise. • There is a high degree of scientific certainty that sea level is rising and will continue to rise due to thermal expansion of sea water. The current projected rate of sea level rise should be considered a conservative estimate because it does not include the effects of melting glaciers or water storage in reservoirs. The greatest threat to coastal North Carolina from climate change likely comes from sea level rise and its related impacts. • There is a high degree of scientific certainty that increases in storm and hurricane intensity will occur. Changes in hurricane frequency cannot be confidently predicted at present. More intense storms generate larger and more powerful ocean waves. The combination of sea level rise and more powerful waves multiplies coastal erosion damage risks. • Annual precipitation (total yearly rainfall) in coastal North Carolina is not currently predicted to change dramatically. However, the frequency of precipitation extremes or prolonged droughts may increase in the 50-yr time horizon, although predictions for the NC region show only moderate changes. • All meteorological responses to climate change (precipitation, drought, hurricanes) are strongly modified by natural oscillations in the oceans and atmosphere (e.g. El Nino, the North Atlantic Oscillation). On decadal timescales these oscillations may act to intensify or moderate climate change effects. • The salinization of coastal groundwater sources results from a combination of increased rates of human usage (both potable water and for industrial sources) and rising sea level. Increases in coastal population will exacerbate this problem. • There are currently examples of groundwater flow reversal in the NC coastal plain resulting from pumping. Such reversal can increase the chances of groundwater salinization. • Relative to other regions along the Atlantic coast, the NC coast is not currently experiencing large amounts of salt contamination of major municipal groundwater wells. One notable exception is Northeastern NC where salt water has intruded into the aquifer, and where groundwater is currently treated with reverse osmosis to ensure its potability.
